Wednesday, December 5, 2007

How Good is Ethanol for the Environment?


As originally published on AskPatty.com at Thanksgiving, 2007.

Ethanol is all the rage in some circles now as an alternative fuel for our cars. Midwest America is especially enthusiastic about it because the agricultural economy can benefit from it. Brazil has successfully built a national industry based on sugarcane ethanol and biofuel cars. How good is ethanol really, for the environment?

The hope is that ethanol can potentially produce many more benefits compared to oil. Farmers, obviously, are eager for the ethanol economy because it expands the market for their crops. Midwest America hopes that ethanol will help restore many rural agricultural communities perhaps even making them profitable enough so we can do away with government subsidies one day. That's the dream.

Ethanol has the potential to help nations achieve energy independence, reducing dependency on foreign oil. For example, Brazil announced last year that it has weaned itself off of oil, after 10 years of intensive effort in encouraging the budding ethanol industry to mature. This is a hopeful development. Imagine if China and India and USA goes energy independent! This would definitely change the geopolitical picture of our world. Indeed many countries with agricultural economy create enough agricultural wastes to produce certain amount of domestic ethanol fuel sources. Brazil used its sugarcane stalks leftover from its sugarcane processing industry. Closer to home we have weed grass and corn stalks in abundance.

Ethanol proponents also claim that it creates no net addition to the world’s carbon emission. Plants are carbon sinks, meaning they absorb CO2 from the atmosphere to grow, so when we burn biofuel, we are simply releasing what it had absorbed. How true is this? A recent National Geographic article explored this quite effectively, in my opinion.

The gist of the article is that it is important that the right agricultural product is used for producing ethanol. The drawback of our national ethanol picture today, is that, it takes herbicide, machines, land, and lots of water to produce corn and soybean which generates most of our ethanol today. This creates competition with food supply (think cereal and feedstocks). Even if we turn all our soybean and corn supply into ethanol, we can only replace 12% of our gasoline and 6% of our diesel. The article also said that there is no net gain in fossil fuel replacement by moving to corn ethanol because it takes as much gasoline to produce the amount of corn needed. Additionally, to produce enough corn as ethanol feedstock, we will need to plow into increasingly marginal lands.

Biofuel According to Nathanael Greene, a senior researcher with the Natural Resources Defense Council, the key is to figure out how to make fuel from plant material other than food: cornstalks, prairie grasses, fast-growing trees, or even algae. Brazil did a great job in this area by converting the agricultural waste products from their massive sugarcane industry into fuel. These would have ended up as waste anyway, so finding another usage for them is a great example of whole-system thinking. As a result of their forward-thinking approach, 85% of Brazilian cars now run on alcohol, and although most have flex-fuel ethanol-gasoline engine, the price advantage of sugarcane ethanol in Brazil means that many haven’t visited the gas station for years. That's something I'd like to have for the sake of my ever diminishing wallet! Still although the ethanol picture in Brazil is rosier and definitely more sustainable than that of the United States, it is not without problems. Pressure for deforestation because of acreage expansion, burning of cane to prepare fields for harvesting, and worker exploitation remain issues to be solved.

Some groups are working on taking the food chain out of the picture entirely. This seems to be most promising path for the U.S. ethanol progression. Cellulosic ethanol, made from plants with high-level of chains of sugar molecules in the plants’ cell walls, is currently hailed as great replacements for soy and corn sources. These alternatives are none other than the deep-rooted perennial prairie grasses like switchgrass or buffalo grass, sawdust, and other non-food stalks and leaves (e.g. cornstalks). The trick is to make processing them cheap enough to be competitive with other fuel sources.

In sum, the ethanol picture is complex. It is an alternative for now, in competition with electric and hydrogen fuel cell to power our vehicles. The eco-footprint argument for ethanol is still murky and will probably remain contentious for the next few years. As voters and consumers, it is important that we continue to educate ourselves on the total impact of each fuel alternative, as billions and billions of dollars are being poured into each. Which one will help us reduce our greenhouse gas and carbon footprint the fastest? How long can we afford to wait before having a real solution to power our car more sustainably? The climate crisis is here, and we can’t afford to fool around for years until a solution is found. We need market solutions that will make a significant dent on the climate crisis, TODAY, so we better spend our precious R&D dollars and time wisely.

If you haven’t seen the news yet, IPCC, the U.N.'s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, has just given us the last warning on climate change in its final report as reported by NYTimes this past weekend. Even in its cautious and measured tone, IPCC has declared global warming as "unequivocal." That’s scary stuff.

Wednesday, November 14, 2007

Interview with FlexFuel USA CEO

Ask originally published on AskPatty.com under the title, "Flex Fuel USA Ethanol Conversion Kit".


Flex Fuel USA, an American startup in Chicago, recently announced the release of
Flex-Box Smart Kit™, a first-of-its-kind fuel conversion system that is EPA-certified. After a year of R&D, the company was able to produce the first and only E85 conversion unit has been certified by the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) for fleet vehicles, and allows fleet operators and drivers to fill up on E85 (a blend of 85 percent ethanol and 15 percent gasoline) E20, E10 or pure gasoline. Go American entrepreneurs! Together we are making our vehicles greener!

The EPA certification is important because it means you will not void your car’s warranty. Bear in mind though that this system is only useful if you live where ethanol public access fuelling stations are fairly readily available, e.g. in the Midwest. If you live in California you are out of luck, since there is only one public access fueling station, in San Diego… To find a pump, click here.

Flex Fuel USA is currently targeting the fleet market (e.g. taxis, livery, police departments) because most of them have their own fueling sources. According to Mitch Sremac, CEO, consumer versions should be available for 80% of today’s late model cars in the fall of 2008. So stay tuned! However, if you work with a fleet today, you may want to check out their website for more information. The press release notes that the system provides:

* An approximate 15 percent per gallon fuel cost saving over gasoline
* Additional fleet incentives such as rebates, fuel discounts, and access to HOV lanes
* An 85 percent reduction in fossil greenhouse gas emissions
* Independence from foreign oil & supports domestic farming
* Significant increase in vehicle horsepower, acceleration and performance. Ethanol is a high octane fuel hence burns more efficiently.

In their test with a fleet-type vehicle, the Crown Victoria, fuel efficiency measured in miles-per-gallon is comparable to slightly lower than gasoline. Regular gasoline version for the 2007 model comes in at 17/25 city/highway, while with the kit it is 16.9/26.8 city/highway. However, since ethanol only costs about $0.60 per gallon today, overall fuel savings is significant. According to Sremac, the payback period for a fleet is about 6 months, while for consumers with already efficient cars and low overall mileage, it could be between 12-15 months. This does not yet factor in the tax credits or state rebates. Monetary cost, alone, however should not be the only guide in our decisions on fuel sources. Let’s not forget about the environmental and political cost of using gasoline and foreign oil.

Curious about how difficult it is to get this system into my car when it becomes available, I asked Mitch what a consumer needs to do. AAMCO Transmission Centers “Eco-green Auto Service™” program can already install the kit, but if you want to save another $200, and you already know how to do tune-up, change your own oil and brakes, it should be easy enough to DIY, with two hours time investment. The retail cost will be $1295, while a system purchased from and installed by AAMCO will be $1495. Sounds to me like a fairly affordable and immediate way to reduce your carbon and eco-footprint. I am looking forward to fall 2008 for the consumer version and future stories about whether this helps E85 take off as an alternative fuel.

A Talk by Sherry Boschert - Plug-in Hybrid Enthusiast

As originally published on AskPatty.com, entitled "Where can I buy an electric car?"

I recently attended a talk by Sherry Boschert, the author of "Plug-In Hybrids: The Cars That Will Recharge America". Sherry got into plug-in hybrid when she put in solar panel on her home in foggy San Francisco. Once one gets free electricity from the sun, the logical next step, obviously, is to figure out what else could be plugged in. Today, she has been driving an all-electric Toyota RAV4 for 5 years now, and hasn’t been to a gas station in 5 years. Some people has racked up over 100K miles on the RAV4 and the battery is still doing well. I am sure you are wondering, by now, whether it makes sense to drive an electric car if you don't have solar panels.

But first, let's look at the two flavors of electric vehicles – partial and full electric vehicles. Both depend on batteries to store electricity that is generated by several possible means. An example of a partial electric vehicle is today's hybrid, which runs on gasoline, and produces electricity through regenerative braking. A plug-in vehicle (PHEV) is a step-up. Some of today’s hybrid can been converted by a third party to be plugged into regular electric outlet, further reducing its dependency on oil. They work on regular 110V outlets, although the 220V outlets for washer/dryer will recharge the car faster. Compared to regular hybrids, a PHEV needs more batteries, and is an intermediate step until full battery-electric vehicles (BEV) become commonly available.

According to a 2007 National Resource Defence Council (NRDC) and Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI) study, PHEV reduces GHG between 7-46% compared with hybrids, in the study timeframe of 2010-2050. This will happen even in heavy coal state such as Idaho and Ohio. Plug-in electric vehicles is probably the quickest way to significantly reduce greenhouse gas emission, right now. It is something we can do today to make significant progress on the problem of global warming.

Experts present the following arguments on why electric cars are better than gasoline, better than fuel cells. The gist is that they are cheaper, cleaner, and use domestic power sources. Unlike fuel-cell vehicles, which require an infrastructure for refueling stations (since they use compressed hydrogen as fuel), the infrastructure for powering plug-in electric cars already exists. It is our national grid! Assuming the average American grid, which is still 50% coal and hence polluting, the wells-to-wheel emission for electricity is still lower than that of regular gasoline.
Wells-to-wheel measure refers to the total pollutants produced by vehicles and by their power sources. This is an inclusive measure of carbon footprint and greenhouse gas emission. In addition, in case you are wondering how the US grid can support all our automobiles, the US Department of Environment has just released a study this year assessing the impact of PHEV on electric utilities and regional US power grids. The study says that existing off-peak grid capacity can already fuel daily commutes for 73% of all US cars, trucks, SUVs and vans as PHEV.

A tricky problem we face with automobile emission reduction is that we have millions and millions of individual emission points. Each of these pollution sources (i.e. each of our cars) will have to be cleaner to make a dent on the climate change issue. This is a mass coordination effort, which could be multiplied if car technology were to gradually shift into cleaner and cleaner technology. However, if PHEV or BEV were available today, then we only need to change our cars once to be cleaner. If all cars run on electricity, then the emission problem is shifted from millions of tailpipes to hundreds of power plants. Greening fewer enormous pollution sources is a lot easier than greening hundreds of millions of cars all over the world. Since even with today's power plant mix, we will already emit less if everyone shifts to electric cars, we are starting from a cleaner picture, with improvement opportunity as power plants use more renewable energy sources.

However, the sad news is, neither PHEV nor BEV is currently available to mass consumers (unless you can afford the 100K Tesla). The major automobile makers are focusing on FCEV, which uses hydrogen fuel cells for electricity, instead of the plug. According to the Plug-In Partners America website, an advocacy group for PHEV, “just a few short years ago each of the major automakers were building all-electric cars, trucks, or vans in order to meet the Zero Emissions Mandate for the California Air Resource Board. Today, none of these same companies are building all-electric vehicles. Today, no major Automaker is selling plug-in hybrids. So where can people get plug-ins?”

If you are interested in taking action to encourage automobile makers to sell PHEV, check out the Plug-in Partners National PHEV Initiative website. It is “a national grass-roots initiative to demonstrate to automakers that a market for flexible-fuel Plug-in Hybrid Electric Vehicles (PHEV) exists today”. As a consumer, you can sign the Plug-in Petition. In addition, if your workplace has a fleet of vehicle, Plug-in Partners is garnering “soft” fleet order of PHEV, with no financial commitment, to demonstrate that market demand exists. You can also ask the California Air Resource Board (CARB) to do everything possible to get plug-in cars on the road (link here). CARB is reviewing the Zero Emission Vehicle mandate this year.


Personally, like Sherry, I now have solar panels on my roof, and am keenly looking into a plug-in or full battery electric car. Since the major automobile makers do not have any offering in the market, I will have to look at the second-hand market (e.g. Toyota RAV4), alternative neighborhood electric car manufacturers, or buy a hybrid and find a conversion partner. It is a hassle to shop for and involves way too much research. However, it is worth the effort since I have to do my part to fight climate change. I will keep you posted on my adventure shopping for one, and also what I learn about the possibility of obtaining such a car as a consumer, TODAY.

(Source: 2001 U.S. DOE Argonne National Lab, 2007 NRDC/EPRI. Both studies use the sophisticated Greenhouse Gases, Regulated Emissions, and Energy use in Transportation (GREET) system for analysis. Details here.)

Wednesday, October 24, 2007

The joy of solar panels

We recently installed solar panels capable of generating 4.2kW on our home's rooftop. Solarcity ran a solar discount program in our town, Mountain View, earlier this year where if more than 60 households sign up, everybody gets a discount. Ours amounted to 5.6%. In addition, we also received a 25% rebate from PG&E. The rebate approval process took a while and caused us to miss the summer sun so we are really looking forward to next summer. PG&E it seems, didn't believe we need 4.2kW based on our historical usage (even though the historical numbers came from small individual apartments before my fiance and I combined our household). We will get a small income tax credit next April too. All in all, it added up to $11,800 in savings. The upfront cost was still $25K -- a rather steep price if you will.

The math is that if our bill is $250/month, and the total cost if $20K, we will have saved on electricity bill from the 8th year onwards.

Monetary payback aside, having solar panels is a most satisfying experience! It reduces our cognitive dissonance about using electricity responsibly (given that the grid system today mainly runs off of coal and other non-renewable sources). Our meter now runs backward! It is the most satisfying thing to watch. The next step is to figure out which non-electric appliances we can convert/replace to leverage this free source of power. The plan all along is to get a plug-in electric car (we'll have to convert our old car probably since there is none we can afford on the marketplace). Having solar also makes me feel *much* better about using my electric blanket, buying an electric space heater, buying an air-conditioning unit, and leaving the lights/appliances on. It frees my conscience up. An additional step we might take is to convert to passive solar water heater. Ahh... doing good the environment actually helps me live better! As someone who is constantly feeling cold, the solar system helps me justify using appliances that provide warmth via electricity. Sweet. Now if only our heating system does not run on gas...!

Monday, October 22, 2007

Aggregating our individual impacts

Here's a pretty interesting concept that enables individual change to amount to a real impact on the marketplace. The One In A Million campaign: "if a million women intentionally shift at least $1000 of their existing budget to environmentally-friendly products, we can have a noticeable ONE BILLION DOLLAR IMPACT in the marketplace."

Here's a blog from someone who tracked her green balance sheet.

Thursday, October 18, 2007

Who is greener? Well, that depends...

As originally published on AskPatty.com. Here's the excerpt...

This week I happened to chance upon two situations of people debating their relative environmental impacts, with each side thinking she is more eco-friendly. In both cases, one party owns a more efficient vehicle while the other insists she lives a lower impact lifestyle overall despite having a less efficient vehicle.

So in this post, I will compare the vehicle usage patterns of two drivers – one a hybrid owner (Driver A), and one an SUV owner (Driver B). At first glance, A appears more environmental because she drives a hybrid, but let’s verify whether this is true with some numbers based on these two drivers’ actual life styles.


Driver A Driver B
Vehicle owned Hybrid Toyota Prius SUV Dodge Durango
Vehicle spec 2006 4 cyl, 1.5L 2006 4WD 8 cyl, 4.7 L, Auto(5)
Vehicle MPG (City/Hwy) 60/51 12/17
EPA Air Pollution Index*
(0-Worst, 10-Best)
8 1
Daily commute (each way) 60 miles, highway 6 miles, town

* The EPA Air Pollution score represents the amount of health-damaging and smog-forming airborne pollutants the vehicle emits. This score does not include emissions of greenhouse gases.

This translates to an annual commute impact of…


Driver A Driver B Difference (A minus B)
Miles driven per year 30,000 miles 3,000 miles 27,000 miles
Annual fuel use* 541 gallons 187 gallons 354 gallons
Annual fuel cost $1623 $561 $1062
Annual CO2 Emission** 10,584 lbs 3,669 lbs 6,915 lbs

Assumes 250 working days , gasoline at $3/gallon. Sources:
* http://www.fueleconomy.gov/feg/findacar.htm
** http://www.terrapass.com/road/carboncalc.php

Driver A (hybrid owner) actually generates 6,915lbs more of CO2 than Driver B (SUV owner)! The clearest lesson to be taken from this is that simply living close to work can be a major environmental gain. Even though buying a hybrid electric car is a great thing, it doesn’t necessarily make you environmentally responsible in the big picture. In this real life case if you look at the bigger picture there’s an even wider discrepancy between these two drivers since Driver B is close enough to walk to work twice a week (cutting back emissions and gasoline by another 40%), while driver A lives by himself in a large house that takes a lot of energy to heat.

To truly understand one’s impact on the environment, accounting for the bigger picture of your daily car usage pattern and lifestyle is important. Accounting is usually valued only as a monetary cost, but for true comparison, we need to factor in economic costs too – which would take into account the opportunity cost of the next best alternative, and the externality cost to society and environment. Be aware too, that although carbon accounting is important, it is not the only story. Other greenhouse gases (e.g. methane, N2O) contribute to climate change too. Pollution from cars contributes to smog and health problems, not to mention odor nuisance and noise pollution. One’s lifestyle determines one’s eco-footprint – how many planets worth of resources are needed to support human race if everyone consumes at the same rate as us. I will explore eco-footprint in a future post.

Each of us makes choices based on our own very unique needs, budget, and preferences. Sure, a Hummer is downright excessive when you look at its environmental impact. But what about the more-efficient-than-a-Hummer, but still less-efficient-than-a-sedan SUV or pickup truck? In some cases, they may actually make sense to own! An outdoor enthusiast with a lot of equipment who needs to drive regularly to the ski resort on a mountain may need an SUV. A renovating homeowner who is doing regular hardware store run to pickup lumbers and other large-sized supplies need a pickup truck. It is simply too cost ineffective to pay Home Depot to deliver several times a month…

So in my opinion, simply being aware of the impact of one’s action on the environment is a good start. From there, the next step is to evaluate alternatives on how to do better, if you can afford to do so, and if not, when you can start doing better. Sometimes it is as simple as paying an extra $5K for the Honda Civic hybrid. Other times, it is a toss-up between your conscience and a roomier SUV because you make a lot of trips with 4 other passengers. Perhaps the decision to buy a smaller or more efficient car will have to wait in certain situations, e.g. till the kids go away to college. The key is to constantly evaluate your personal situation and make the most responsible decision you can, based on your own unique situation. If however, you do not yet own a car or is currently ready to switch, the best decision is to buy the most efficient car you can possibly afford, because once you go down the path of owning a particular vehicle, the switching cost will become another limiting factor.

The next time a friend challenges your automobile choice or transportation options, show them the tables above, and have a discussion about the bigger picture of both your commute pattern and lifestyle choices. The answer is usually a lot fuzzier than just choosing a more efficient car.

In summary, to all car owners out there – please do enjoy your vehicle, but please do actively consider the impact of your driving pattern and vehicle usage on the environment. You can be green by actively thinking about what else you can do to negate the carbon/GHG impact of daily vehicular usage. Here’s an inspiring example from Hewlett Packard 2006 Global Citizenship Report: "We estimate that for our monochrome LaserJet products, the total energy consumption saved since 1993 from use of [instant-on fusing] represents 4.1 million tonnes of carbon dioxide (CO2), equivalent to removing 870,000 cars from the road for one year.

Remember, we can all be our own “power of one”. What’s the one change that you can make today to offset your carbon footprint?

GM Hydrogen Fuel-Cell Vehicle: from concept to market

This week I attended the GM Chevy Volt fuel cell vehicle media event. Here's my story... as originally published on AskPatty.com.

http://askpatty.typepad.com/ask_patty_/2007/10/gm-hydrogen-fue.html


Filing this after a day at the GM Equinox Fuel Cell media outreach event -- "Electric Drive University". After having read Sherry Boschert's "Plug-in Hybrids: The Cars That Will Recharge America" and watched "Who Killed the Electric Car?" (2006) by Martin Sheen, I was really curious to hear directly from GM its side of the story.

The event showcased the GM Chevy Equinox Fuel Cell all-electric vehicle and provided an intensively satisfying series of lectures on Project Driveway (the largest market-test for a FCEV), safety, fueling, technical principles, and highlights of GM's strategy (from gasoline-powered to gas-friendly to gas-free). It was my first ever chance of driving an all-electric FCEV. However, I was most curious about to market path, especially after listening to Ira Flatow's NPR show "Green Cars on Display, But Will They Hit the Road" -- a fairly contentious discussion featuring Elizabeth Lowery (GM VP Environment & Energy), Sherry Boschert, and an Engineering Editor at Road and Track.

Today's car economy, especially in the U.S., is built on gasoline cars, gasoline stations, and internal combustion parts' service providers. We know how to deal with good 'ole polluting gasoline guzzlers. In economics terms, this is path-dependency -- i.e. "history matters" in making subsequent economic decisions. Adopting a completely new set of technology -- e.g. electric vehicle -- requires major shifts in established industries -- from labor, R&D, assembly line, supply chain, to refueling capabilities.

What I learned from GM is that they believe the following may need to happen for the FCEV to be commercially viable (i.e. available in the market).
Currently, the vehicle is undergoing market test only, and no production schedule has been announced. Most of these info are from a question posted to Byron McCormick, Executive Director/GM Global Fuel Cell Activities, as well as discussions throughout the event with numerous GM reps.

• Partnership amongst car industry (e.g. GM), fueling providers, and government is necessary to create a critical mass of refueling infrastructure. Currently it could take 4 years just to obtain permits to put in a new H-refueling station. Germany, for example, is working on reducing this lead-time.
• GM admits it can't do it alone. Hence it is a good thing many automobile manufacturers are working on fuel-cell vehicles at the same time. The cross-pollination of ideas amongst researchers and management facilitates problem solving which shortens the path to market.
• Technical challenges are not so much an issue today, but there are still many little things that will require more cycles of iterations before an FCEV is market-ready.
• Partnership with government is critical, to revise/develop codes and standards, and develop favorable tax structure to producers and consumers to adopt hydrogen FCEV.
• FCEV needs to be cost-competitive with existing options, since majority of consumers will not vote with their wallet when it comes to green options. Hence, GM needs to produce at a cost-competitive price.
• High-volume productions for hydrogen and membrane manufacturing will lower cost enough, because of economy of scale. One way this could be helped along is by providing tax incentives to increase ROI for early players in these arenas.
• Since hydrogen FCEV requires refueling infrastructure and fairly intensive educational outreach to both consumers and the local emergency first responders, GM is starting from a regional strategy (LA, NY, Washington DC) in testing FCEV markets, and then expanding along contiguous corridors.
• GM needs to know that consumers want EV, what they want in such cars, and enough consumer awareness in order to have enough demand to justify large-scale production. Hence its Project Driveway initiative.

Overall, my sense is that GM seems to have a well-organized program to bring this technology to market, although they have not announced a production schedule (which is a thorn to skeptics out there).
The fuel cell, like any other technology, has its pros and cons, but overall, it does seem like a viable component of motor vehicle energy diversity. GM has spent some real money (upward of $1B although actual figure is undisclosed) -- on R&D, safety testing, marketing/promotion, training, and consumer awareness. However, the final proof will be when the consumer can actually buy electric vehicles from GM dealers. Wouldn't it be great if there comes a day when Americans can buy affordable American-designed, American-made EVs anytime, anywhere?